00:00All right, guys
00:00Welcome back to the channel
00:01It's Jason Pazino with TIAInvestor.com
00:04Bitcoin is failing the test
00:06That's what we're covering in today's video, along with traditional markets
00:09Make sure you like the video and subscribe to the channel so you don't miss the daily updates
00:15Okay, starting with Bitcoin today
00:18Slightly different from yesterday's video, which looked at the macro cycle and traditional markets
00:24Bitcoin has fallen 2.6%
00:27It has not broken the $82,000 level, so that is the good news
00:31The bad news is this is not going in the direction that we need to see it go at this stage of the move
00:40Now, there are two major things that we're following here, but it's not all bad news
00:44So, just let me share with you the..
00:46Short-term bearish news before we get to the longer-term analysis
00:51So, short-term, this has been the level that we're tracking: 87,200 to 87,400
01:00Two particular reasons for that—one, it is a major resistance level, and that comes from the entire price range move that we saw from the current significant low, or if you will, the cycle low, to the top here at 81,000 dollars
01:16Now, that entire range is projected off this low, so it's around 75,000 dollars
01:23You just project up, and we want to see that range repeat to show that the buying action is coming in, to demonstrate that there is an expansion of buying activity
01:34Now, what has happened is that it’s fallen short at 50%
01:41Like, you know, if you follow the channel, 50% is a very important level
01:47This has now fallen short at the 50% level
01:49Not once, not twice, not three times, although you could say three, potentially even four times here because it's tried to rally on each of those occasions
02:01It pulled back, it rallied, built up again, it failed, and it tried to rally again and failed since that point
02:07So, it's failed many, many times
02:09Normally, you'd want to see a market breakout at least on the fourth attempt
02:13But if it fails on the fourth attempt, then that just builds up the weakness in the overall structure
02:17It's not to say that we can't go through, but what I'm saying is if it does go through, it's now unlikely in this particular move, or very unlikely, I think, that we're going to see a repeat of this movement here
02:33So basically, weighing up the probabilities of how strong this recent move is, if you're looking at the chart here, you can see the move from September's low
02:41This move is now very much weakening compared to where we were in mid-August, when we had the breakthrough
02:50So again, not to say that we can't hit 88, 90, 94, whatever, but this current move, from the low to the present day—which is 22 days, roughly three weeks—is wearing thin, which is okay
02:59It's okay
03:08That was the first resistance level, and why that's a significant resistance now at $87,000
03:17The second reason is we want to see the buying action return for the bulls, at least, and for the market to overbalance the..
03:24Prior ranges
03:30So we had this entire range projected off the low here, and we're basically trying to assess whether the buyers are stepping in with increased demand because, at the end of the day, it's about supply and demand
03:36Are they stepping in with more demand than they have in the past, and can they sustain the pressure on the selling? And so far, the answer is no
03:47It was very close—few hundred dollars there—but it just did not reach that point
03:53So, the selling pressure has stepped in right at the final moment
03:57What needs to happen is for this move to break 87,400 dollars
04:04I've been saying 87,500 is really that line in the sand for the oversupply
04:09And so far, it has fallen short by 100 or 200 dollars
04:11Here, $300 here, roughly 400 billion
04:16He just keeps falling short over and over again
04:17Now, there are two reasonably good points here for now
04:24We don't know what happens in the next few minutes, of course
04:25And, you know, the case with crypto viewers is that they're very much minute-by-minute sort of people
04:32Hopefully, that's not you, but I see it in the comments—like, this news is old
04:36It was 10 minutes ago
04:39It takes time to upload a video
04:42Anyway, the top is around 82,000 dollars, so we're still sitting on support
04:45It's still okay
04:47The volume for yesterday, with this flush out, was much lower
04:49You can see right down here—if you're looking at my face in the top corner—go and look in the bottom right-hand corner; the volume was..
04:55Lower
05:00And that's at least a good short-term sign that it's attempting to hold this trading range to consolidate before another attempt
05:06Is that attempt going to be at 84,000 or 86,000? We don't know
05:11But at least it's holding the ground here for the time being
05:15So that's the short term that is looking relatively good
05:17So that's, uh, yeah, short-term, but the longer term is mostly what I'm focused on because, short-term, day to day, whatever it drops, it rallies—who cares
05:24The important part now is the 50-week moving average
05:32So the key level below, just to make that absolutely clear so no one has any questions, is 82,000 dollars
05:37That was the double top, and the market broke through, unfortunately, on the weekly chart
05:45There was no..
05:49Follow through thus far, really clear to see there
05:53It's a double, uh, double top
05:58Broke out, sold off, attempted again, failed so far
06:02Four days to go in the week
06:05Let's see if the bulls can hold the ground here
06:06If this falls back underneath, then this, technically speaking, is a fake out
06:11And we have a fake out above the 82,000 level
06:13We have a fake out building above what has historically been the bull market confirmation, which is the yellow line I’m pointing to here, the 50-week moving average
06:30And it's not all doom and gloom because you can see in the prior cycles, 2023, it broke out of the 50-week moving average and we basically went on to the final tops
06:42It did test it along the way, but really not too much action happened below that line
06:47It is a good sign for the strength of the market, but once it broke out of the 50-week moving average, it did take six months of consolidation
06:57I really stress the time here—six months of consolidation before it was able to break out again to, you know, get back to the next resistance levels, 50% and so on
07:06We can talk about those later, but this one here broke the 50-week moving average, took six months to consolidate, and then things started to move
07:15You can see how the action just really died off
07:18This was the March low
07:21The regional valley, uh, what is it—the Silicon Valley Bank and other regional banks that were going under—those regional-type banks—that was the scare
07:28That's the point in the market, and from there, Bitcoin boomed, took off in one massive week, and then..
07:32Basically stalled
07:36You can see it tested the highs again and fell back underneath
07:40It took many, many, many weeks, tested again, held, and then failed, and then again took another couple of months, finally breaking out
07:47So that was a long process, especially after breaking the 50-week moving average, but it did get there in the end in 2019, with a breakout from the 50-week moving average
07:54It ran on really hard for the next few weeks, a month or month and a half, then failed back toward the 50-week moving average, and again it took many, many, many months
08:05In this case, it actually took over a year
08:06Here is June 2020
08:10This is June 2019
08:14A few more months later, and then you finally get the breakout to astronomical highs
08:18Alright, so that took over 12 months to move away from the 50-week moving average
08:23You know, in the mid-bull market, I guess, or mid-euphoria, it tested the 50-week moving average again, rallied to another high, which was another failure, and then broke the 50-week moving average, signaling a bear market
08:37But try and tell people that in the early stages of a bear market
08:41Now, the 2015 low and 2016 consolidation were similar
08:48I wouldn't say it's an exact repeat
08:51You had a break of the 50-week moving average, and the market held it, then ran over towards the line
08:55Those days, 2015 and 2016, involved a very different type of buyer
08:59At that time, we were seeing Bitcoin as a brand new technology
09:06Everything was still ahead of it
09:08No one really knew about it
09:11It was still, you know, like a subculture
09:13It wasn't really popular like it is now
09:16And it had a lot of strength behind it
09:21It was a period of strong momentum
09:26So, Yeah, there were some times when it got close to the 50-week moving average, didn't really test it, but once it broke the 50-week moving average, it still went on a six-month consolidation before another break higher
09:31So even in those days when the market was—uh, Bitcoin was fundamentally different then, or at least in the eyes of the public, because you know, it—you had a lot of different exchanges that still didn't have KYC, whereas everything is KYC now
09:48The governments are onto it, the governments are trying to invest in it, you know everyone's trying to invest in it; you get the idea
09:54It's much, much different times
09:56The same thing happened: it broke the 50-week moving average and then paused just to get that nice, clean number
10:05There's October break, there's the top in November, and then..
10:07It broke again in May
10:09So yeah, just a couple of weeks over six months
10:13All right, so I think, look at this one here, when it tested the 50-week moving average, that was six months
10:18I remember the top was in June
10:20It pulled back into December
10:22So six months to test the 50-week moving average
10:24I know the other times it basically went sideways and then took off
10:26In 2019 and 2020, it went down and then tried to take off six months later
10:33COVID and then it tried again
10:36So six months is a pretty, um, look, it's happened three of the last times
10:44Unfortunately, where it currently sits in the price action, we didn't see that repeat of the overbalance
10:49Well, we didn't get an overbalance in the time of the price
10:52It needs to extend there, and then if it goes dormant, that's looking much, much nicer
10:55That's my..
10:59The only concern I have here is that it's been rejected many, many times at 87, 87.5
11:02We didn't reach the overbought level, and it's not far from the double top, which it just attempted to break out of when all that greed and excitement returned to the market, which reminds me of the Fear and Greed Index
11:18So, the Fear and Greed Index did hit extreme greed around that time
11:25Yeah, basically, the day of the breakout
11:28So, this was the huge breakout
11:31The Fear and Greed reading comes in the following day, for the day before, and that came right on that move
11:34Everyone was going bananas
11:36I think that was the time when a few YouTubers, including Ben Cohen, one of them, came out and said he was wrong, and so on
11:39Uh, you..
11:41I know, I love Ben
11:44I love his channel
11:46I love everything he does
11:52He's a great guy
11:59But you could see it in terms of the market sentiment on that day, and that was all of those folks who were really putting the pressure and trying to criticize everything about what the market was doing
12:05You know, wrong about lows, wrong about this, wrong about that
12:06They all came out on that day, in full force
12:12They're always there, but they came out in full force on that day
12:14And look at what has happened since that day: extreme greed
12:16The only time in this rally so far the price has not gone higher
12:22We're three weeks, or 17 days, into this period, so about two and a half weeks from that point, and it seems like things have..
12:28Just cooled off
12:34Cooled off is absolutely okay, but you often see that sort of extreme emotion at extreme points
12:40And look at the buying action on the ETF flows that happened on the 21st
12:45And look at the buying action
12:48It was basically died off
12:51That was the highest buying action we've seen since September or October 2025, which was the all-time high
12:54So 12 months later, the most ETF buying happened again
13:01And you know, it's just like clockwork
13:03You see these signals, you have to fade them
13:05You gotta fade these people
13:07They are the worst traders in the game
13:10And, uh, you look at that extreme buying action that came in right at the peak, and we haven't gone past it since
13:15Not to say that it can't go higher and all that
13:17Sort of stuff
13:18You're just seeing how the emotion comes in at those times, I think
13:19Well, I hope I've made that point
13:20So, [snorts], the action now really relies on $82,000
13:27You could argue $83,000, but you know, give or take
13:29I'm looking around $82,000 because that gives it a little bit of leeway here, back towards those prior highs that we saw with the double top
13:34And with this decline, if we continue to see it further, then that lines up with everything that we typically see with bear markets, uh sorry, with the fear and greed index during pullbacks after it has rallied off a low
13:50Forget the bear market statement there
13:52Um, it could be a macro bear market for all anyone knows, right? Still in a macro
13:56So, what I suspect to see next is..
14:01The pullback into fear—that's usually what happens
14:06If we get a nice little push back into extreme fear, it could be a good place for a local low for another test of the rallies because we see this basically every time
14:15It's not something that should come as a surprise
14:18Now, look at the greed
14:20So, this is off the cycle low, kind of similar to where we are now
14:22We've broken out of the 50-week moving average
14:26And to layer on even more evidence, we have also seen the breakout of the 200-day moving average
14:30Now, just as a reminder, there's the 200-day break right there
14:34And another breakout of the 50-week moving average as well, which is basically what everyone calls the bull market confirmation line
14:41Now, in terms of sentiment and what happens next over these six months, which..
14:50I've shown, or hopefully shown, you in the historic data over the last three bull market cycles, early in those bull markets
14:58It takes about six months to consolidate before another attempt
15:03So that's another interesting one
15:07I'll get to that in a sec
15:08Looking at where six months will then take us if this is the case, right? Look at this
15:13We've got greed at these highs, pullbacks into fear, another attempt at greed, pullbacks into fear
15:23And then it had its way with us and ran higher, going even further in sentiment, with higher greed readings, and then eventually into extreme greed
15:33Did I say greed all along? Yeah, obviously, it's greed
15:35Hopefully you can see that
15:36The cycle
15:38Before, in 2019 and 2020, the run-up into or let's measure it after the 200-day and the 50-week
15:46Bam
15:49Extreme readings here
15:52We got extreme greed, then a pullback into extreme fear
15:55Another test, extreme fear, and basically went sideways and remained mostly fearful during this time here—the second half of the six months
16:03So, I'm just reading this as six months, and I mean, you had greed up until this point—more than half that period, about four months—of the consolidation was spent in extreme fear and fear
16:21But I'd say that's only like that because there was some extreme sentiment to the upside as well
16:29You had a lot of time in greed and even more time in extreme greed through that top, compared to 2023 and compared to now
16:34So, we do
16:40I have a fair bit of time in greed, not that much in extreme greed
16:46And it's not, it shouldn't come as a surprise if we do fall into fear
16:50It might just be another great higher low opportunity, which then takes us into that six-month window
16:58And this is the forecast into 2027
17:00I'm excited for this if it can hold to that level
17:04And we're still seeing some good strength in traditional markets, stock markets
17:11We're still seeing, you know, money in the space as much as we can possibly gather around into it
17:19Then we could be on the cards for a breakout from that point
17:21This is just one look at things and, you know, it's basically a bit of speculation and for fun
17:31Okay, we need to go with the market
17:33I really want to
17:35Stress that because if things change, we have to change
17:37I'm just looking at what's happened in the past, six months
17:38If that's the case, let's not worry, yada yada
17:43Okay, six months from the peak will take us roughly to March of 2027
17:51Okay, first quarter of 2027
17:55So, if this particular movement from this point fails and we see declines and things repeat or rhyme like last time, the time frame would be out towards late Q1 of 2027 for a breakout
18:17I don't think that this is the most likely outcome because of what we've seen already with this bear market and everyone seeming to front-run what they expect to happen
18:29We've had the low only 9 to 10 months after the top, which has been one of the shortest bear markets in
18:33Bitcoin's history
18:38Therefore, I don't know if this is going to last for six months
18:42It very well could, and we just have to watch what the price action is doing
18:45Does it get weaker and break through the 50-week moving average again, which is not a great sign this early on? Does it break the 200-day moving average again, which again is not very—definitely not strong
18:54Any breaks below 67k, then I don't think this is going to come back
18:59But for all intents and purposes, we're talking about consolidation from this point
19:03If it continues, then I'm looking toward the next three to six months of not being as extreme as this time
19:09Maybe we get this, you know, attempted move higher and then a pullback
19:16But look, all of that up and down, this… Aside from that speculation, I'm more willing to go on the side of history, watch the market sentiment and how these pullbacks occur, because that's going to give us the lead on what potentially happens next
19:36You can see the pullbacks through this consolidation
19:39The next thing to watch is where this price action lands in relation to the 50-week and the 200-day moving averages
19:45More importantly, where the 50-week moving average is, because throughout 2023 we saw pullbacks into sentiment, into fear of the sentiment reading tick
19:54That would be great to see
19:57We see the price stall, which would also be absolutely okay from this point, but we don't want to see it consolidating underneath the 50-week moving average
20:09In 2023, you can see that it held above the 50-week in 2020, it did a..
20:11A lot of its consolidation above the 50-week moving average, and only towards the last few weeks, last month or so, it went under
20:21A few days, it put in higher lows and then broke back above, tested it just before the panic of the pandemic came in
20:30So that's the panic there, and then it spent the next few months quickly getting back above, and when it was above, it held above
20:42So that's how you can see the strength coming back in after the black swan of the pandemic
20:46And then in 2016, there was basically no test of the 50-week moving average
20:53There was just so much strength building in this market back in the old days, holding on for that next big ride
20:59And we really have data from 2010 and 2011, you know, once it got back above the 50 decisively
21:07In 2012, you know, it went on for another massive move
21:10So yeah, in all of those situations, the 50-week Moving Average has been a pretty important level for Bitcoin
21:16So that's why I'm somewhat concerned here
21:18Not overly concerned yet because we haven't had any breakdowns of it
21:22If that were the case, then you would say this would be the first one in history that it's broken that level
21:30But you'd also have the first time in history that you've got a 10-month bear market and such a short-lived bull
21:35This could just be a macro lower high
21:38My stance still has not changed on this next bull market
21:45And for round numbers, I'm only looking somewhere between 100,000 and 150,000 dollars for any of these next moves
21:50100k, obviously, lacks..
21:52Last year
21:54It'll be a macro double lower double top into the previous tops
21:56You know, maybe you get a macro double top of the previous all-time high up to 150, which takes you out to the resistance of the last 7-8 years
22:05Um, this is this white line here
22:08Let me take that off, and you can see a little better
22:10And that, over this period, is around 130
22:14If it happened next month, if it happened in 2027, you're up around 140
22:21So, you know, we've seen it break past that level and then close back underneath a few weeks later
22:24So, yeah, around 100 to 150K, give or take, it's yeah, it's neither here nor there for me
22:34It's really because of where I see things sitting overall
22:36It just doesn't seem like that money is coming back yet
22:40Now, I did say we'll Let's have a quick look at gold and the traditional markets, but yeah, gold has basically been on a decline here
22:46I'm going to do a longer-term update tomorrow
22:48I think for gold, it's a big down day
22:51Gold needs to see this reversal really back above 4,300 bucks
22:57And yeah, we're just not seeing that strength come back through for gold, which the gold bugs at all thought
23:03They'd just be saying this is a great buying opportunity, as they have done all the way down and as they had done at the tops, thinking that any time of day is a great time to buy gold
23:12Anyway, that's just looking purely at the chart here
23:16Silver hasn't done much either, also pulled back, and the stock market, after breaking out, had a pullback day
23:23Another fake and a fake and a break, but the close was okay
23:26Still just above all those prior tops, and you can see that it's held above the prior daily closes at those highs as well
23:35So, it's trying to find where the buying activity comes back because, as I said yesterday, with these two days going higher and we failed at the 50% level here
23:48I'm going to turn off all these from yesterday
23:49These were the price targets that we tracked
23:50The market action has just not followed through here for the S&P
23:56Therefore, it's hunting for the buyers, hunting for where this buying activity is going to come back in, and the exchange volume for crypto
24:04So, just quickly going back to crypto, ETH, Sol, XRP, look, the exchange volume is
24:11Dying off again, which is very common at this stage
24:13We saw the pumps last cycle in 2023, and then it faded off again to fresh lows
24:18So, if this does fade off back towards 15 billion, then it's pretty similar to last time
24:23But overall, the volume has been drying up more across Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for this entire bull market cycle
24:35Okay, could this be the time for stablecoins to finally bounce? Potentially, you know, with a bit more volume coming back into stablecoins
24:41This is combined USDT and USDC, which would mean a short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies
24:48And look at that on ETH
24:52It's done its overbalance
24:54ETH and SOL, they've overbalanced from their last run
24:56So, this is somewhat..
24:59Good news
25:03If it can hold up here around—no, no, not really—too much further than 2,000 prior tops, of course, then we might have another chance for a leg up
25:06That's for Ethereum
25:09And for Solana, yeah, a pullback as well
25:12Nothing too crazy here
25:14I'm not overly concerned
25:16Pullbacks towards, you know, the prior zone at those highs around 90 dollars to 100 dollars
25:20It's still okay, and then we'll be watching for any turnarounds once we see that strength come back into Bitcoin and cryptocurrency for a longer period
25:31Little spikes up taking out highs for Bitcoin—that would at least be a good sign for the overbalance, but I still see just a little bit of weakness here
25:40I don't think it's too much to be concerned about
25:42XRP
25:45Bigger pullback, and it had the lower highs, so slightly weaker position than Ethereum and Solana
25:48So, that's a nice big look there at Bitcoin for the week
25:54That's pretty much been the most action we've seen from Bitcoin this week
25:55Uh, so, I'll update again unless there's a major development tomorrow
26:01I'll update this Bitcoin analysis next week
26:03Tomorrow, I think I'll cover gold, silver, and the stock markets
26:07Lots happening over there as well
26:09And, uh, yeah, I'll see you guys in the next video
26:11Make sure you like and subscribe
26:12And don't forget, there are Substack reports that go out after these videos
26:17They take everything I've talked about and lay it out in a beautiful format for you
26:21There are links at the top of the video
26:22Description and the pinned comment, and it just turns that into a report with the data there, so you can have a read-through and keep up to date with us
26:30See you at the next one
26:32Until then, take care, and peace out
26:35Just
बिटकॉइन $87,000 के महत्वपूर्ण प्रतिरोध स्तर को तोड़ने में विफल रहा है, जिससे अल्पकालिक कमजोरी का संकेत मिलता है, हालांकि $82,000 पर समर्थन अभी भी बना हुआ है। 
