1. Bitcoin Market Overview and Trading Strategy [0]

thumbnail Bitcoin recently experienced significant liquidations, but indicators suggest a potential bounce and continued uptrend, with a local top likely approaching.

1.1. Recent Market Movements and Influences [0]

  1. Half a billion dollars in liquidations recently occurred, mostly from long positions, causing a slight downside on the daily chart [0].
    1. However, the hourly chart shows a bounce, and uptrend indicators are holding strong [3].
  2. The short-term price drop was caused by the US moving Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime, which typically signals an intent to sell, spooking the market [6].
  3. Bitcoin is currently caught in an RSI symmetrical triangle trend on the daily chart, near the low of its rising trend line [10].
    1. A bounce is expected if this symmetrical triangle holds, potentially offering an opportunity for new trades [11].
  4. Strength is still observed in many pumping altcoins [14].
  5. The NASDAQ is pushing towards new all-time highs, with QQQ just below its all-time high, which is seen as a positive sign for crypto and Bitcoin [15].
    1. The speaker reallocated funds into QQQ when it was under $400, and it is now breaking out, proving to be a very good trade [17].
  6. The MAGS ETF (Magnificent Seven) is also breaking out to new highs, indicating continuation for individual picks like Amazon and Google [19].
    1. Trading grids for Amazon, Google, and NASDAQ long positions are available for copying [21].
    2. Bitcoin grid bots can be used to set parameters for scaling in and taking profit [24].

1.2. Crypto Market Outlook and Bitcoin's Next Turning Point [26]

  1. The crypto market is currently in "easy mode" because prices mostly go up, and when they drop, they don't fall significantly, unlike traditional crypto downturns of 50-70% [26].
  2. A poll on Bitcoin's next move shows only 12% believe a local top is coming, which, based on past poll behavior, suggests a local top is indeed likely [65].
    1. The speaker believes there might be one more push to the upside before this local top [71].
  3. The skew (a measure of market sentiment) is negative, indicating panic [78].
    1. If price holds above the RSI trend line and rebalances, a further squeeze to the upside could occur, which would be good for the "pump" position [79].
    2. A green weekly candle close would be increasingly bullish, potentially leading to new all-time highs for the "pump" trade soon [80].
  4. Large liquidations often signal major market turning points, so monitoring daily exchange volume is crucial [83].
  5. Bulls in USDC dominance are fighting to reclaim a critical mid-range level (orange line) [87].
    1. Holding this level could lead to a larger bounce in USDT dominance, causing a further dip in Bitcoin [89].

1.3. Bitcoin Price Levels and Profit-Taking Strategy [77]

  1. The most important low for Bitcoin to hold is around $8,026, requiring bullish absorption and one more leg up alongside the stock market to test the supply zone [92].
  2. The supply zone, around $92,000 to $94,000, is a mandatory profit-taking area, even if prices are expected to go higher, due to risk-to-reward considerations and potential retests [96].
    1. The speaker plans to de-risk into this zone [100].
  3. If a local top occurs, support levels remain mostly the same, with a cluster of support in the low $70,000s, including the anchored VWAP, 50 EMA, a support/resistance flip region, and a rising trend line [101].
    1. These support levels become relevant if the price starts to break down [107].
  4. For the RSI, price needs to get back above $86,500 to turn it upwards [108].
    1. The RSI is expected to connect with its support trend line, potentially within the next 24-72 hours [111].
    2. The 50 level on the RSI is also a significant supporting point, similar to Fibonacci retracements [115].
    3. The price is currently at the 9 and 18 exponential moving averages, which are important support areas [130].
  5. A daily candle closing below $82,510 (Monday, September 25th) would confirm that a local top has already occurred [124].
  6. Massive liquidity is building up, with $22 million at $87,000 acting as a magnet for price [135].
    1. The weekly chart shows more liquidity on the upside, with $17 million on the downside in the $80,000 to $85,000 range [139].

2. Altcoin and Traditional Finance (TradFi) Market Analysis [141]

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The speaker provides updates on various altcoin and TradFi positions, highlighting potential profit-taking opportunities and areas of concern.

2.1. Altcoin Updates [141]

  1. The "pump" position is holding up well on the weekly chart [143].
    1. If the weekly candle closes green, the "pump" could test highs around $0.00867 within two weeks, representing a 33% upside [144].
    2. The speaker plans to take some profit if this coincides with Bitcoin entering its supply zone [145].
    3. The entire move up for "pump" is volume-backed on the weekly scale, indicating healthy buying [147].
    4. The daily candle retracing yesterday's dump is a good sign, and the speaker will continue to hold this position [152].
  2. For Astra, the speaker welcomes a break of its trend line and lower prices to fully fill resting orders down to 58 cents [154].
  3. Ponds needs to break its downtrend and move above 58 cents to get out of trouble, having tested and bounced off the golden pocket [156].
  4. Stoch is at a key support zone that should not be broken [159].
    1. A move above 23 cents would signal a potential reversal [161].
  5. The speaker de-risked by exiting the Cash position because it failed to hold a critical level at 16, flipping bearish [163].

2.2. TradFi Market Updates [169]

  1. FedE is experiencing a pullback, but the speaker will keep the trade open, hoping for a quick retracement if Bitcoin bounces [169].
  2. Apple is still a valid long trade, with a clear invalidation point below the current price and expectations for continuation [188].
  3. Nvidia is at new all-time highs, showing no bearish signs [192].
  4. Meta is expected to run higher, with a trade setup targeting 3R (three times the risk) and an 11% upside move [194].
    1. The trade involves entering after a fair value gap has been filled, with a tight stop loss at $709 [199].
  5. Microsoft is choppy but likely to run higher, though positioning is difficult [215].
  6. Tesla has completed its throwback into a high low zone [219].
    1. A break of its trend line and resistance around $410 would confirm continuation [222].
  7. The energy sector, including oil and Bloom Energy, is strong [228].
    1. Oil shows a significant reversal candle, suggesting a move towards $118 [232].
    2. This strength in energy, alongside rising 10-year and 30-year yields and a climbing stock market, is uncharacteristic and suggests caution [235].
    3. If things fall, the stock market is likely to correct [238].
  8. Tanker stocks like FRO and TNK are at new highs, and STNG's target is still in play [241].
    1. These are long-term spot positions, not suitable for leveraged trading due to the time it takes for them to play out [246].
  9. Metals are weakening, with gold potentially dropping to the low $4,000 region [249].
    1. If gold loses $4,000, it could bring $33 into play, representing a 16% drawdown [251].
    2. Silver could easily fall to the $50 region, and platinum faces resistance, potentially dropping to $1,350 [257].
    3. Copper is the strongest metal but could flush given the broader weakness [261].
    4. Aluminum is expected to sweep below $3,000, potentially dropping to $2,700 [273].
    5. Palladium is bearish and could flush down 18% [276].

3. High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto Opportunities and Market Dynamics [283]

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The speaker discusses the potential for 100x gains in crypto, the importance of conviction and small position sizing, and analyzes broader market indicators for potential shifts.

3.1. Pursuing 100x Crypto Gains [283]

  1. While 100x gains are possible in a bullish market with new momentum, finding such coins is extremely difficult [285].
  2. The strategy for 100x coins involves betting small, as most will not achieve such returns, and requires endurance over time [289].
  3. Success in finding these opportunities requires hyperfocus and readiness for when trades align [291].
  4. The speaker achieved 100x to 2,000x gains by being full-time in crypto, constantly looking for opportunities [294].
    1. These gains were on smaller position sizes, not the speaker's entire net worth [300].
    2. The largest disclosed trade was $6,000 into $400,000 on Het, the cat [303].

3.2. Updates on Specific Trades and Market Indicators [311]

  1. Palantir is looking good, holding its range high breakout and expecting continuation [314].
  2. Robinhood might drop deeper, and for those not already in the trade, it's best to wait for strength above $123.93 [318].
  3. MU (Micron Technology) is showing weakness and needs quick follow-through; a drop below $8.85 would indicate distribution [344].
    1. The AI sector, including memory-related stocks, is currently driving the stock market to new all-time highs [348].
  4. Intel could look good for continuation if it carves out a higher low [350].
  5. Caterpillar is taking a hit, but the speaker holds it as a spot trade, targeting a 30% move from a current 7.5% gain [352].
  6. AMD is the strongest, pumping significantly [360].
  7. SanDisk is showing weakness, similar to the Asian market's SK Hynix and Samsung [361].
    1. A break of the trend line in SK Hynix could form a bear flag, potentially leading to a 68% drop [366].
    2. Such a drop could tank the US tech sector by 32% [382].
    3. The tech and AI sectors are currently holding up the US stock market, so a breakdown in Samsung and SK Hynix could lead to fear and contagion in the US tech sector [384].

3.3. Further Crypto and TradFi Trade Reviews [393]

  1. Nike has a very big falling wedge on the weekly chart, having already dropped 80% [396].
    1. The speaker is long on Nike with a small amount and looks for a bullish break on the hourly chart, ideally recapturing the hourly 200 EMA and breaking underside resistance [401].
  2. McDonald's saw profit-taking yesterday, and a bounce is expected if it gets above $250 [410].
  3. Omicron is up 38% since the original trade, targeting 112% [423].
    1. If it holds the 50% level and flips it to support, it will be bullish, and the target will likely play out [418].
    2. Stops are at break-even, and taking 25% profit is an option [420].
  4. Sui is holding up well, maintaining key Fibonacci levels like the 50% mid-level and potentially the 0.382 level at $15 [431].
  5. Marscoin had a big pump and retraced, and the market often sees these new coins chop before another pump [466].
    1. It's difficult to position at the exact low with technical setups; instead, it's best to stake an amount one is willing to lose and hold if there's fundamental conviction [475].
    2. Technically, it could retrace to the 78.6% and 88.6% Fibonacci levels, which were already tested, leading to a bounce [480].
  6. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is super bullish and part of the S-tier group, expected to trade to new highs if it holds at $8,452 [491].
  7. Chainlink is in the A-tier, but the speaker is unsure due to consistent selling by developers [498].
  8. Litecoin had a flush and needs to develop strength, getting back above $414 after rejecting off underside resistance [503].
  9. Gnosis pumped significantly and could consolidate, putting in a high low; flipping this level would be bullish [510].
  10. The speaker cut the CashCAD position to de-risk, but believes it will be a strong performer in a bull market [514].

3.4. Final Market Outlook and Risk Assessment [522]

  1. The speaker is entering a Google trade on their platform, setting grid parameters from $306 to $536 [530].
    1. This trade will be shared for others to copy [549].
  2. Toobit offers a 10% deposit bonus up to $30,000 and a chance to win an iPhone Duo or cash prizes by spinning a wheel [570].
  3. USDT dominance shows money flow curling up on Market Cipher indicators, with a falling wedge and Stochastic RSI turning up, which is a bearish signal for Bitcoin [577].
    1. Bitcoin is showing a red dot on the Market Cipher, indicating caution [581].
    2. The speaker is only about 5% long on crypto, with the "pump" trade up over 50% and TradFi positions also significantly up [585].
  4. The current situation could be a falling wedge on USDT dominance at a key support/resistance flip level [594].
    1. If it breaks through and puts in a higher low, it's important to be aware of the implications [596].
    2. While not a bullish divergence, there are two drives with two green dots, suggesting an inverse situation for Bitcoin [602].
  5. If a local top occurs, the market will become interesting, especially if prices fall below the mid-range (red line), which would lead to panic and a retest of the lows if buyers don't step in [608].
  6. The poll results, with only 15% voting for a local top, reinforce the speaker's belief that a local top is coming, but the question remains whether it's now or after one more pump to $92,000 [615].
  7. The RSI's interaction with its rising trend line will be very telling for the next major move [620].